原创翻译:彩神8app大发快3 http://yedeqiao.com 翻译:神刀 转载请注明出处



The awarding of the Nobel Prize in economics to three academics “for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty” has prompted some caustic commentary about how much, or little, global poverty has actually been reduced by the highly targeted, small-scale policy interventions uated by such experiments.

将诺贝尔经济学奖授予三位“以实验性方式缓解全球贫困”的学者,引发了一些尖刻的评论,评论称此类实验评估的高度针对性的小规模政策干预,究竟实际上减少了多少全球贫困。

It’s well known that most of the reduction in global poverty in recent decades, however it is measured, is accounted for by rapid economic growth in big Asian economies. On the World Bank’s numbers, China alone accounts for about 60% of the decline in the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide (China’s poor population declined by 742 million people, while the world’s declined by 1.16 billion people).

众所周知,近几十年来全球贫困人口的减少,无论如何衡量,都要归功于亚洲大型经济体的快速经济增长。
根据世界银行的数据,全世界生活在极端贫困中的人数减少了60% (中国的贫困人口减少了7.42亿,而世界的贫困人口减少数量为11.6亿)。



It’s true that the decisions that led to China’s sustained economic growth were not mostly driven by research published in peer-reviewed journals. But that does not mean that economic ideas did not play a role in those decisions, or that the role of economists was not important. At least, as long as one does not hold to an excessively credential-focused definition of “economist” as meaning only a person holding an economics PhD. Pieter Bottelier’s recent book, Economic Policy Making in China (1949-2016): The Role of Economists, introduces many of these Chinese economic thinkers, few of whom are widely known abroad. One figure particularly stands out: Xue Muqiao. Bottelier writes:

的确,导致中国经济持续增长的决策绝大部分不是由同行评审期刊上发表的研究推动的。
但这并不意味着经济学思想在这些决策中没有发挥作用,也不意味着经济学家的作用不重要。
至少,只要人们不把“经济学家”的定义过于注重文凭,认为它只是指一个拥有经济学博士学位的人。
彼得 · 伯特利尔的新书《中国的经济政策制定(1949-2016) : 经济学家的角色》介绍了许多中国经济思想家,其中很少有人在国外广为人知。
一个特别引人注目的人物是:薛暮桥 。
伯特利尔写道:

I agree with Wu Jinglian that Xue (who died in 2005, when he was almost 101) was the most important Chinese economist of the 20th century. He was already involved in economic policy and management before the establishment of the PRC in 1949, and after 1949 under Mao. He then became one of the principal architects of market reform under Deng Xiaoping. The evolution of Xue’s thinking on how to develop a “socialist economy” mirrors Deng’s.

“ 我同意吴敬琏的观点,薛暮桥( 2005年去世,享年101岁) 是20世纪最重要的中国经济学家。
在1949年中华人民共和国成立之前和1949年之后,他已经参与了经济政策和管理工作。

While Deng Xiaoping is these days often remembered mainly as an economic reformer, in fact he was not a specialist in the economy, and largely delegated economic management to other leadership figures. Xue seems to have been quite influential in the formation of Deng’s economic thinking.
Xue is particularly famous for is a letter he wrote in 1977, after Mao’s death but before reforms had begun, to Deng and Li Xiannian that laid out many of the problems in the economy. He focused in particular on agriculture, noting that farm output had grown no faster than the population despite collectivization and massive investments in machinery. The letter is translated in the English-language Collected Works of Xue Muqiao:

随后,他成为市场改革的主要设计师之一,薛暮桥关于如何发展“社会主义经济”的思想演变。”
薛尤其出名的是他在1977年写给和李先念的一封信,信中提出了许多经济问题,改革尚未开始。
他特别关注农业,指出尽管实行了集体化,并在机械方面进行了大量投资,但农业产出的增长速度并不比人口增长速度快。
这封信被翻译成英文,收入了《薛暮桥作品集》 :

The CPC Central Committee has pointed out the importance of having agricultural production catch up with industry’s Great Leap Forward. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has recently proposed twelve significant measures to attain this goal. It recommends an increase of investment into agriculture of RMB 30 billion. These measures are necessary, but I think it is more important to implement agricultural policies that improve farmers’ lives, and that arouse their enthusiasm for agricultural production. … It is hard to motivate farmers if growth in agricultural production cannot bring corresponding growth in income. Any interest in working suffers if extra work is not rewarded. … Boosting farmers’ enthusiasm for agricultural production therefore outweighs improving the conditions for agricultural production.

“ 中国已经指出了农业生产赶上工业大跃进的重要性,农林部最近提出了十二项重要措施来实现这一目标,建议增加农业投资300亿元人民币,这些措施是必要的,但我认为更重要的是实施改善农民生活的农业政策,调动他们的农业生产积极性,如果农业生产的增长不能带来相应的收入增长,就很难激励农民,如果额外的工作得不到奖励,任何对工作的兴趣都会受到影响,因此,提高农民的农业生产积极性比改善农业生产条件重要。 ”



In a long speech presented to the Central Party School in autumn of 1978, Xue was the first official within the ruling Communist Party elite to criticize the catastrophic consequences and painful economic lessons of Mao’s “Great Leap Forward.” By warning that similar mistakes should not be replicated in the future, Xue’s speech paved the way for subsequent adjustments to China’s economic policies. …

“ 。。1978年秋天,发表的一次长篇演讲中,薛是第一个批评错误经济运动带来的灾难性后果和痛苦的经济教训的精英,薛的讲话警告道,类似的错误不应该在未来重演,这为随后中国经济政策的调整铺平了道路。。。 ”

As the most authoritative expert on price in the Communist Party, Xue was the first person to point out that price reforms were key to China’s economic reforms. He also differentiated between overall price stability and flexibility of individual prices. In agreement with German economic expert Armin Gutowski, Chinese American economist Gregory Chow, and experienced economist Edwin Lim, Xue promoted price reforms, which was one of the major decisions of the Third Plenary Session in 1984. …

“。。作为最权威的价格专家,薛是第一个指出价格改革是中国经济改革的关键的人,他还区分了整体价格稳定性和个别价格的灵活性,在与德国经济专家阿明 · 古托夫斯基、华裔美国经济学家格雷戈里 · 周(邹至庄)和经验丰富的经济学家埃德温 · 林(林重庚)达成一致后,薛推动了价格改革,这是1984年主要决定之一。。。”

In 1978 Xue pointed out that instead of administrative regions, economic development should focus on economic zones based on resource flows. The economic zone in Shanghai contributed to its becoming one of China’s most capital-abundant cities. Xue’s proposal also later led to the launch of other regional development plans.

1978年薛指出,经济发展不应以行政区域为主,而应以资源流动为基础的经济区为主,上海的经济特区使其成为中国资本最丰富的城市之一,薛的提议后来也导致了其他地区发展计划的启动。

So Xue’s intellectual influence can arguably be detected in agricultural decollectivization, the overhaul of central planning, the transition to market prices, and the coastal export manufacturing boom. That is a pretty staggering list.

因此,在农业去集体化、中央计划的彻底改革、向市场价格的转变以及沿海出口制造业的繁荣中,可以看出薛的学术影响力非常之大,这是一个相当惊人的清单。

Of course, China’s decades-long series of economic reforms had no one author or leader. But China’s system of closed-door debate and collective decision-making has long obscured the important contributions of individuals like Xue, and Du Runsheng, another major figure in rural reform.

当然,中国长达数十年的一系列经济改革没有一个作者或领导者,中国的闭门辩论和集体决策制度长期以来一直掩盖了薛暮桥和杜润生等个人的重要贡献,杜润生是农村改革中的另一位重要人物。